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Royer, Doug wrote:
> Were the
> head winds grossly miscalculated? Thus putting them grossly out of position
> and/or consuming much more fuel than they calculated or allowed for.

The speed line they obtained from the Sun rising nearly dead ahead
should have revealed any serious headwind, and Noonan could have shot
course lines out his side window during the night.

Itasca observed 7 knots of wind from the east.

There seems to have been enough fuel. According to the Itasca's radio
log, at 1912Z Earhart said "We must be on you but cannot see you." She
had enough fuel to fly until 2400Z.


A scan (about 750 k) of one of the planning sheets is on the web:
http://gemini.lib.purdue.edu/Earhart/EarhartDisplay/Name.cfm?ID=484
(The direction is backward because the flight was originally going to
circle the world eastbound. After the delay due to the takeoff mishap,
they decided to reverse the direction.)

Modern coordinates for the beginning and end of the flight are:
Lae              06 44 S 147 00 E
Howland Island   00 48 N 176 38 W

Using those coordinates, my GPS agrees with the planning sheet data to
practical accuracy. (The speeds and distances on that sheet are in
statute miles.) But look at those 15 waypoints on a great circle track!
It seems a pointless refinement for a flight so close to the equator. I
would eliminate all those little course changes, and plan the flight so
Earhart could fly a constant magnetic course all the way from Lae to
Howland.

Though I'm skeptical about the lunar parallax theory, the author of that
page does have a good point: the Moon was available. But its altitude
may have been too high for convenient use. When Earhart said, "we must
be on you," it was about 65° high at Howland. I don't know if Noonan
would have been able to shoot it.

By 2100Z the situation would have improved, with the Sun and Moon both
about 45° up, and a 125° split in azimuth.

> It is interesting that the ships on station were able to receive some of
> Earhart's calls but couldn't communicate with her radio. And how well did
> her radio-direction finder really function? Was it calibrated and did she
> really understand how to use it?

According to that paper by radio engineer Hooven, "The people
responsible for installing the radio equipment and instructing Miss
Earhart in its use reported that they had difficulty in retaining her
attention, and it became obvious as the flight progressed that she did
not understand the frequency limitations of her direction finder, nor
how to make proper use of it."

Hooven also said Itasca's skipper received no clear instructions on
exactly what radio assistance was expected, and never got any
acknowedgement that the information he sent to Earhart ever reached her
before takeoff.

> Here is the title and authors of the book I read about this. It's
very good
> in technical and historical detail (although nothing is proved or
> finalized). It most likely is at your public library as that is where I
> picked it up.
>
> "Amelia Earhart: The Mystery Solved"
>
> Elgin and Marie Long

Thanks for the tip. I was at a library Friday, but the book was checked
out. (Their catalog showed Elgen, not Elgin, for the author's name.) If
I ever get hold of it I'll post a book report.

   

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