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    Re: That darned old cocked hat
    From: George Huxtable
    Date: 2010 Dec 9, 21:59 -0000

    John Karl wrote-
    
    The flaw is you are simply counting regions, not computing the probability
    that the fix is in those areas.
    They don't all have the same probability. So it's an error in logic to
    assume they do.
    
    Yes, they do.
    
    Three separate observations are made, one of each star. By our prior
    condition, the  probability of each being toward or away is 50:50. There is
    no correlation between them. They could have been made by three separate
    observers, each putting his observation into a sealed envelope, to be
    opened together after the event. Then the probability of any combination,
    of the 8 possible, is one in 8. How can it be different?
    
    George.
    
    contact George Huxtable, at  george@hux.me.uk
    or at +44 1865 820222 (from UK, 01865 820222)
    or at 1 Sandy Lane, Southmoor, Abingdon, Oxon OX13 5HX, UK.
    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "John Karl" 
    To: 
    Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 8:25 PM
    Subject: [NavList] Re: That darned old cocked hat
    
    
    George,
    
    The flaw is you are simply counting regions, not computing the probability
    that the fix is in those areas.
    They don't all have the same probability.  So it's an error in logic to
    assume they do.
    
    BTW, attached is a case which clearly shows that neither the Fermat point,
    the center of gravity, the bisecting of the triangles vertices, or the
    Steiner point is located at the maximum probability (marked with an "x").
    
    JK
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