NavList:
A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
Re: Sun, distances and self-confidence
From: Bill B
Date: 2005 Jun 10, 13:23 -0500
From: Bill B
Date: 2005 Jun 10, 13:23 -0500
> Thanks! You mentioned a serious problem indeed. > The local joke is > "If you don't like the weather in Kiel, just wait 10 minutes". > > And this is literally true. > I've never seen a place where clouds come and go so fast. > In the limited time that Sun is visible from my window, > it is very hard to catch it in a hole between the clouds. Alex Very much like my experience on Lake Michigan last weekend. The marine forecasts should have been done for every ten-mile stretch, and even then would have changed almost hourly. Clouds sweeping in from the southwest. The plot of hourly barometric pressure looked like a sine wave, and the horizon was hazy enough that it was nearly impossible to get a good IE check (air and water temp maybe 20 F apart). Out of five tries, two IE checks were in the right neighborhood at 0.6' on the arc (usual O.7'), one was 0.2' off the arc, one at 1.0' on the arc, and the last 1.2' on the arc. Tried every trick I have read, including sweeping the horizon once set and looking for a traveling "hump," all to no avail. Winds had started about 17 kn out of Michigan City Saturday, dropped to 7 kn an hour or two later, and then picked up to 32 kn with heavy rain and lightning about three hours into the sail to Chicago (about 30 minutes after my observations). Off and on. (Talked to some of the racers in the Chicago/Michigan City race after the fact and they saw breezes in the lower 40 kn range--as forecast in the storm warnings. Tornadoes were reported in Michigan.) Quite an interesting day weather wise. Despite my disappointment at the lack of a crisp horizon, I was not going to lose the opportunity to shoot on the water, and reckoned I was not the first sailor to encounter the horizon obstacle. (Remembered tales of tropical navigators with clear skies but a hazy horizon, but did not have a dish of mercury with me ;-) Seas were calm with 1-3 ft swells, so I had a go at it. Picked the closest to a sharp line I could find and used it. Besides the horizon, yaw was the biggest obstacle to overcome. Adjusting for pitch and heel/roll was relatively easy, but yaw with an inexperienced guest helmsman was difficult. Sort of "set and wait, adjust, set and wait." Before departing I took measurements from the waterline to the cockpit sole, coachroof by the mast, and foredeck at the anchor locker for use in calculating dip. Then it was a simple matter of measuring my height of eye from the surface, and adjusting for heel by noting the difference between resting waterline and boot-topping/water under sail. I had a mate hold my GPS and mark down the time and coordinates at my mark. Then I averaged the times, Ho's, and position and did a single reduction with the averages on a pocket calculator. Results were 1.9' Away. Monday on the return trip the same "spot weather" but milder. When we left for Michigan City small-craft warnings were forecast there for the afternoon. We actually wound up motor sailing in due to lack of wind. It was hot and humid (and when the wind died we got a boatload of those nasty little biting flies that can't read the insect-repellant label that states it repels them--I prefer the Canadian Wren-sized flies you can hunt with a 410 shotgun/birdshot). 2-3 foot swells, wind still out of the southwest. The horizon was like a line of loose cotton between the water and sky with no discernable line, except to the northwest where it resembled Saturday's horizon. We were about 9 nm off, and with the haze against the sand dunes it seemed like a lost cause. I tried one shot, and decided to give it up. Then I thought there might be something to be learned about accuracy and repeatability under the conditions, so did three shots and recorded them. The three averaged out to 0.8' Away. Better lucky than good. When I returned home I ran all the individual observations through Omar Reis's site (http://www.tecepe.com.br/scripts/AlmanacPagesISAPI.isa) for Hc's , calculated individual errors and averaged them, and used Excel to plot the Hc's vs. Ho's, and established a linear-regression trend line for the Ho's. Saturday, June 4, approx. 13:36:48 EST On-board calculation of averages: 1.9' Away Error by Omar (Ho - Hc) -1.1' -1.8' -2.4' -3.2 -0.3 Mean of errors: -1.7 (Away) The slope of the Excel-generated linear-regression trend line for Ho was parallel to the Hc slope plot but below. I would love to discard the -3.2 as an outlier and improve the results significantly, but in all fairness would also have to discard the -0.3 when compared to the Hc slope if plotting by hand on a boat, so little would change. Sunday, June 6, approx. 14:33:45 EST On-board calculation of averages: 0.8 Away Error by Omar (Ho - Hc) -6.3' -5.0' +8.7' Mean -0.9 (Away) As you can imagine, this Excel plot was a mess. The slope of the Hc line was much steeper than the slope of the Ho trend line. By chance I guess (being mathematically challenged), the lines intersected each other in their middles, so luck won out? Fitting to the Hc slope would have given similar results. Somehow, founded or not, my gut tells me I am better to fit the data points to the Hc slope then picking an arbitrary time/elevation than doing the same on the linear-regression slope. The difference in Hc calculations from my averages and Omar's site Hc's I regard as rounding errors. Often my calculations from the Nautical Almanac data vs. Omar's are 0.1' off. Also played with position with my hockey-puck compass and sextant using the Sears Tower and John Hancock buildings around Chicago, and position from an object (Sears Tower and Michigan City power-plant smokestack using the sextant and trig with mixed results. All in all, a great learning experience. Looking forward to your comments and results with a natural horizon and/or small craft. Did you pack that magnificent Soviet three-armed protractor to play with? Bill