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    Re: Still on LOP's
    From: Rodney Myrvaagnes
    Date: 2002 Apr 22, 13:00 -0500

    On Mon, 22 Apr 2002 09:48:45 -0300, Trevor J. Kenchington wrote:
    
    >point would be a very small circle. But those are only estimates. Your
    >logic leads to the conclusion that, even when a cocked hat is very small
    >because of chance effects, there is exactly a 0.25 probability of the
    >true position lying inside it. And that doesn't make any sense to me at all.
    >
    
    THis is an area where intuition may well fail us. But, the simulation
    Chuck Taylor proposed could help us here as well. Assuming the
    simulation to be carried out in a spreadsheet program, we could select
    out all cocked hats below some chosen size, and sum the distribution of
    their centers about the true. My intuition says it would be a very
    sharply-peaked distribution.
    
    My intuition says that an unusually small cocked hat may come from
    smoother water more often than pure accident. If that is the case, one
    reasonably puts more confidence in it.
    
    
    
    Rodney Myrvaagnes                                  J36 Gjo/a
    
    
    "Curse thee, thou quadrant. No longer will I guide my earthly way by thee."  Capt. Ahab
    
    
    

       
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