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    Re: Real accuracy of the method of lunar distances
    From: Frank Reed CT
    Date: 2004 Jan 9, 02:29 EST
    I wrote earlier:
    "As a practical matter, the difference of about 8% is probably quite a bit less than the improvement in accuracy that results from using the Sun in a lunar (it's easier to bring two disks into contact than to place a twinkling star on the limb of the Moon)."

    And Fred Hebard replied:
    "One clear point that came out of Bolte's paper from the 1870s referenced by Jan Kalivoda was that there's little difference in precision between lunars taken with stars and lunars taken with the sun. "

    ok... so?? How many lunars were in that data set of Bolte's?

    I realize that several of you expended an ENORMOUS amount of text over the statistical niceties of this article which Jan Kalivoda kindly described, but did you ever stop to see what you were counting?? Now, I could have missed a factor of a hundred in ther somewhere, but as I understand it, we're talking about ONE navigator on TWO voyages who made a grand total of 34 lunar distance shots. This is only the barest minimum of a statistically useful set of observations. That this set was divided into several categories each with separate stats makes the claimed statistics for them almost worthless. You want to know whether lunars work?? You want to know the "real accuracy of the method of lunar distances"?? Get out your sextant and DO some lunar distances.

    Crazy idea, huh?

    And Fred hebard wrote:
    "I vaguely recall Chauvenet also making this second point."

    Ok... Which point? Where did Chauvenet make whatever point that was?

    Fred concluded:
    "Perhaps Frank could summarize his data for us to illustrate his claim below and compare it to the first point above."

    'Perhaps Frank could...'?? Where have I heard that posting style before...? Eschew group-think, Fred.

    But back to your point. You suggested that 'perhaps I could summarize my data and illustrate my claim'. YE GODS, NO!!! Get out your sextant, and TRY IT. Do some observations. What do YOU discover about the "real accuracy of the method of lunar distances"?? If we sink to such a low level that the only thing we can do is quote chapter and verse from somebody else's observations, then... well... we're all in big trouble, folks.

    Frank E. Reed
    [X] Mystic, Connecticut
    [ ] Chicago, Illinois
       
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