NavList:
A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
Re: Not exactly Navigation, but close...
From: Frank Reed
Date: 2008 Apr 23, 23:55 -0400
From: Frank Reed
Date: 2008 Apr 23, 23:55 -0400
Geoffrey, you wrote: "I figured that each week, the chance of my numbers coming up are about the same as an extinction sized asteroid hitting the earth in my lifetime, with the consequent demise of the human race." Just remember that 'extinction' is the narrow tail-end of the distribution. What you want are the expected casualties and the and the expected value of property destroyed in an impact. That's the meat of the distribution rather than the tail. My odds of dying in an impact event are very roughly five times smaller than my odds of dying in an airplane accident (so rather unlikely but not negligible). Fifteen years ago, the odds were about equal. The cataloguing projects are responsible for the improvement. -FER PS: Sorry for being off-topic. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Navigation List archive: www.fer3.com/arc To post, email NavList@fer3.com To , email NavList-@fer3.com -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
