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Peter,I can't explain what causes the phenominon you described.You are right
that the true horizon doesn't match the reflection.I've never done one from
a small vessel so I can't comment on if the height of eye has anything to do
with it either.It does appear mostly on those nights when there is little
breeze,seas are calm with clear atmospheric conditions.
On nights with the light from a 3/4 to full moon one can make out  the
differance between the sea and sky even when the moon's altitude is fairly
high and quite a large number of degrees in arc either side of the moon's
azimuth.As the moon gets closer and closer to the horizon(setting and
opposite when riseing)the reflected line of light gets more and more intense
untill the moon's light is refracted enough and the white light turns to
orange.
Useing the polarizing shade,sometimes useing both the horizon and index
polarizing shade or a combination of all the shades if both the light of the
moon and the reflected light is strong,helps in seeing the black line you
mentioned.

   

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