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    Re: Lies, damn lies, and statistics...
    From: Hewitt Schlereth
    Date: 2013 Mar 19, 12:24 -0700

    Yup, Jeremy, "feel" and "judgement" are why I rate celestial an art. It's a 
    skill, to be sure, but it requires a bit more than that.
    Sent from my iPad
    On Mar 19, 2013, at 2:56 AM, "Jeremy C"  wrote:
    > Gary,
    > I would qualify this.  Make sure that you have high confidence in those two 
    lines you shoot.  I can "feel" when a line is good when I shoot it.  I hope 
    that others do as well.  I therefore weigh those LOP's much heavier than 
    others.  If you shoot 2 LOP's (be them celestial or terrestrial) and you muck 
    one of them up, you can be way off.  
    > I am one of those people who don't know statistics except in the broadest of 
    terms.  To compensate for this at sea, I remind myself that the celestial fix 
    is approximate at best, and I know about what error of position I can expect 
    based on the stars I manage to observe and the environmental conditions 
    present at the time.
    > This same concept flows through my thinking on all fixes.  Celestial being 
    the least accurate, followed by visual bearings, then radar ranges, and 
    finally GNSS which can be further subdivided by things such as WAAS, DGPS, or 
    multi-system (L2) receivers.
    > While I applaud people's efforts to use statistics to boost fix confidence, 
    I am well aware of the limits of precision and accuracy of the various means 
    to determine position.
    > Jeremy
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