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    (Fwd) Re: Thought Experiment
    From: John Kabel
    Date: 2002 Jun 12, 16:08 -0500

    I mistakenly sent my reply only to Dan.  The rest of the list might be
    interested in the stats as well.  I don't know the current membership of US
    Power Squadron, but their distribution of JN and N grads should be similar,
    given that London Power and Sail Squadron is the largest in Canada, and
    CPS and UPS courses and student interests are very similar
    Another good source would be the Canadian Yachting Association and its
    US, British and European equivalents.
    JJK, SN
    ------- Forwarded message follows -------
    From:                   John Kabel 
    To:                     danallen46@attbi.com
    Subject:                Re: Thought Experiment
    Send reply to:          jjkabel@rogers.com
    Date sent:              Wed, 12 Jun 2002 16:03:58 -0500
    Dan Allen:
    As to your guess on sextant users:
    The London Power and Sail Squadron has 900 members, and until recently
    had 38 people who had passed one course in celestial navigation (Junior
    Navigator), plus 21 people who had passed two courses in celestial
    (Navigator) from Canadian Power and Sail Squadrons.  We currently have
    4 students taking the recently revised CN course.
    CPs has about 39,000 members. And Canada has about 36 million people.
    And I think Canada has more boaters per capita than the US.
    Now it is difficult to say how many of the LPS grads are still active
    users of sextants.  I know that I am, along with the current CN
    instructor and his students.  A few of the celestial grads have stopped
    boating altogether.
    But, these numbers should be indicative.  I hope they help you with
    your guess.
    S/C John Kabel, SN
    Past Commander, now GPS  and  Weather Instructor, among other things!
    London Power and Sail Squadron
    > I propose a thought experiment with a couple of "back of the envelope"
    > estimation questions:
    > 1) How many sextant users are there in the world?
    > 2) What percentage of the world's population that are
    >    interested in sextants are on this mailing list?
    > I of course do not know the answers to these questions, but I think
    > we can make some reasonable assumptions to be able to come up with
    > ballpark figures.
    > If you decide to give this informal competition a try, please try and
    > give us some of your reasoning behind your estimates, because that is
    > the real interesting part of such a question!
    > Dan Allen
    ------- End of forwarded message -------

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