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    Re: Ellipse of Confidence in position finding
    From: Robin Stuart
    Date: 2019 Mar 15, 13:40 -0700

    As I noted in a previous post conditional probability can be very counter-intuitive and mind-numbing. Witness the controversy and confusion generated by the relatively simple Monte-Hall problem that stumped a lot of experts. So here’s a problem with a navigation theme.

    It is late afternoon. Your sextant lies safely in its box and in a few hours you will take sights of three well placed objects you have identified. You are an avid Navlist reader and know that the probability that your true position will fall inside the cocked hat you plot will be 25%. Nautical twilight begins. After you successfully execute the planned sights you retire to the nav station where you plot the LoPs and can now gaze upon the cocked hat. Is the probability that your true position falls inside it still 25%?

    Robin Stuart

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