NavList:
A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
Re: Dependence on GPS
From: Frank Reed
Date: 2009 Oct 31, 21:23 -0700
From: Frank Reed
Date: 2009 Oct 31, 21:23 -0700
Peter, you wrote: " Technologies are just waiting for an excuse to not be reliable." Yes, all technologies. Like chronometers, sextants, hell, the Nautical Almanac is calculated and printed by machines. Every celestial navigation book you've ever used has at least one error in it somewhere. Do we then say, "Celestial navigation, can't trust it, unreliable!" No, of course not. But the point is obvious enough. If you're going to claim that those waterproof bags are just another technology waiting to fail, then you have to apply that same standard to traditional methods of navigation. Do you store your chronometer in a waterproof bag? How about your spare chronometer? What is the probability of a device-based problem leading to the failure of celestial navigation? Pretty low, right? Likewise, the probability of failure of a GPS receiver is quite low, too. How low? Well, let's suppose it's something like 1-in-500 on any given day at sea. That is, the vessel's main GPS system, either built-in or the expensive daily-use handheld has a 1-in-500 chance of dying on any day when we need it. I think the numbers are actually better than that but let's go with this just for the sake of discussion. 500-to-1 against a failure is low enough that it might give us a false sense of security and high enough that we really should worry about it. So what to do... carry a cheaper handheld GPS that you can turn on when the main system fails. Since it's cheaper and probably tested by the owner less frequently, we should figure a higher probability that it will fail, let's say 1-in-100. So then what are the odds that your primary system AND your backup fail on the same day? The probabilities are multiplicative for independent events so we get 1-in-50,000. That means that you can expect to spend over a hundred years going to sea each and every day before you can expect even-money odds of having both fail at once. Those are damn good odds. As I noted in my previous post, it's important to ensure that the second GPS is not an exact duplicate of the first and not stored and powered in the same way. Otherwise you don't have independent probabilities. And of course, that backup should be stored to protect it from all those external injuries that might knock out the primary system. So keep it in a dry, shockproof, metal case. Peter, you concluded: "You're missing my point, Frank." I have patience for your points, Peter, even when I think you're flat-out wrong, and I am always willing to reconsider them. So please try again if you feel like it. Can you explain your point from a different angle? Let me ask you this: if you met someone planning on doing some long-distance sailing, and they said to you, "I'm planning on taking a carefully stored handheld GPS for backup in case the main satnav system fails", would you advise AGAINST taking that backup GPS?? Do you not agree that the very great majority of the cases where the main satellite system fails can be answered simply by breaking out the spare and using it properly? -FER --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ NavList message boards: www.fer3.com/arc Or post by email to: NavList@fer3.com To , email NavList+@fer3.com -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---