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    Re: The Darn Old Cocked Hat - the sequel 1
    From: Don Seltzer
    Date: 2013 Mar 17, 11:15 -0700

    Geoffrey replies:
    >But surely Don, once Monty has revealed that one of the doors does not hide the prize, there are only two doors left and we don't know behind which door the prize sits. So, regardless of which door was chosen first, the probability that the prize is behind each of the remaining two doors is then just 1/2, isn't it?

    If this is not the case, why not?
    >

    If Monty were making his pick blindly, I would agree that the odds had become 50/50. But his pick is not random and there is always an empty curtain for him to deliberately choose. Nothing he has done has altered the 1/3 probability of my initial choice being correct. But Monty has eliminated one of the alternate choices.

    My first pick remains at 1/3 chance of being correct, which means the remaining curtain must have a 2/3 chance of being the big prize.

    Don Seltzer


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