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Geoffrey Kolbe wrote:
>To point up what I am suggesting, I will pose a little puzzle. There used to be a show on American TV back in the 1970's hosted by Monty Hall called, "Let's make a deal". The idea was that the contestant was confronted by three doors. Behind one door was a big prize, like an automobile, and the contestant was asked to choose a door and so win the prize. Having chosen a particular door, Monty Hall would then open one of the two doors not chosen by the contestant to show that it was empty. He would then ask the contestant if he (or she) would like to change his (or her) choice of door to the other of the two doors left.

The question then: Would you change your choice of door if you were a contestant? If so, why?
>

I would absolutely change my choice.

My first pick has a 1/3 chance of being correct. There is a 2/3 chance that the big prize is actually behind one of the other curtains. Because Monty always reveals an empty curtain, the remaining curtain's odds now become 2/3. The odds for my initial choice are unchanged; they are still only 1/3.

Don Seltzer

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