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    Re: The Darn Old Cocked Hat - the sequel 1
    From: Geoffrey Kolbe
    Date: 2013 Mar 17, 16:03 +0000


    I would absolutely change my choice.

    My first pick has a 1/3 chance of being correct. There is a 2/3 chance that the big prize is actually behind one of the other curtains. Because Monty always reveals an empty curtain, the remaining curtain's odds now become 2/3. The odds for my initial choice are unchanged; they are still only 1/3.

    Don Seltzer


    But surely Don, once Monty has revealed that one of the doors does not hide the prize, there are only two doors left and we don't know behind which door the prize sits. So, regardless of which door was chosen first, the probability that the prize is behind each of the remaining two doors is then just 1/2, isn't it?

    If this is not the case, why not?

    Geoffrey
       
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