A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
From: Geoffrey Kolbe
Date: 2017 Nov 22, 23:43 -0800
You know, I wish I could excited by this topic, but I can't.
If the probability density of your position peaked sharply at the most probable position, it would be worth the effort. But it doesn't, and consideration of the most probable position on the assumption that it does (otherwise it is not worth the effort) is misleading at best.
In fact, I think that it could be positively dangerous to start talking about the most probable position inside the cocked hat when this is relied on to determine how safe you are in relation to a nearby navigational hazard. (When else would you be bothered by such concerns?)