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    Re: Bias and cocked hats
    From: Peter Fogg
    Date: 2007 Apr 20, 08:48 +1000


     Bill Noyce  wrote:
    Summarizing the results, we see that when the bias is zero, the chance
    of the cocked hat surrounding the true position is 25% -- confirming
    what we already knew.  When the bias is  more than 3 sd, the cocked
    hat surrounds the true position in over 99% of the cases.  When the
    bias is 0.8 sd, the cocked hat surrounds the true position in 50% of
    the cases.  It doesn't matter whether the bias is positive or negative
    (I assume differences of 1% are the expected fluctuation from the
    Monte Carlo process).  And the actual magnitudes of the errors don't
    matter (for determining this percentage) -- only their relative sizes.
     
    Many thanks to Bill Noyce for presenting this summary of DW's Monte Carlo simulation.

     

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