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    Re: Are we most likely not where we are?
    From: Bill Murdoch
    Date: 2002 Apr 15, 09:27 EDT
    In a message dated 4/15/2002 12:06:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time, hprinz{at}ATTGLOBAL.NET writes:


    The
    most probable position (MPP) is, by definition (!), inside the cocked hat.


    I am not so sure about that.  I think it may be true if the errors are random, but not if they are not.  Let’s say I have three bodies at 300, 000, and 060 degrees (the horizon is dirty to the south), and a sextant with an (unknown to me) 5 arcminute error.  I reduce my sights, get a nice small cocked hat and am actually 5 miles to the same side of all three LOPs.  It seems to me that my most probable position is outside the cocked hat.  Now these are non-random errors, but those are the pretty normal (at least for me).

    Bill Murdoch


       
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