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    Re: Amelia Earhart
    From: Hewitt Schlereth
    Date: 2022 Feb 28, 10:20 -0800
    Okey doke, Howard.  It's just that you stated It as a fact ("the 1 big fact they had - head winds greater than forecast") which led me to think there was a weather source I'd not heard about.

    On Feb 27, 2022, at 5:33 PM, Howard G <NoReply_HowardG@fer3.com> wrote:

    

    Hi Hewitt

    A reasonable assumption but that is what a navigator is for - i.e. aeronautical.

    In 1937 meteorological forecasting was primitive to nil - often relying on information gathered by aircraft on routes throughout the world - and weather information gathered using balloons sent aloft sending back information - in 1937 I am not sure even they had those.

    In the air force in the 70s - 90s meteorological information from satellites was only just becoming a reality - certainly in 1937 through WWII and beyond - The Navigator used forecast inofrmation to essentially work out an expected time of flight and hence fuel load - which Fred did.

    From then on - the navigator (unless he is DR all the way) - which they were not - can calculate groundspeed between 2 fixes - and work out a wind direction and speed - that is what we do ALL the time - we then use this to update our DR plot which runs parallel to your fixing whether (visual) - which they had early on then celestial fixes.

    Fred would have known early on that the wind was greater than he had planned for - and as he was flying at night he would have known this all the way along.

    They were at 10k feet - they crossed islands (these were further out)  further on - though difficult to identify  which, but certainly enough to give you a psoition line at right angles to your course and an accurate groudspeed - and even without perhaps a drift reading which is possible at night on crashing surf on islands - but even without - a wind speed and direction would have been known quite accurately.

    As military navigators on long range maritime patrols - weather forecasts were often used just to get you started - and it most cases we found them no more that just basic starting information. Often we flew were there was no met info and had to guess - that is what navigators get skilled at - navigation, celestial, meteorology etc.

    Fred would undoubtedly be skilled at meteorology.

    Howard G

       
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